Monthly trade report: December 2025

ISSN 2819-408X

Highlights

• Canada’s exports of goods and services rose 2.2% in December (see column “m/m” in Table 1) led by increased exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (which includes gold), aircraft, and non-financial commercial services.
• Canada’s monthly increase in goods imports (0.6%) offset the fall in services imports (-2.2%), leaving the combined imports of goods and services unchanged in December.
• Goods exports to the U.S. increased 1.1% in December while exports to the United Kingdom spiked 39.3%. Canada reported sizeable increases in exports of gold to both countries.
• During 2025 as a whole, Canadian goods and services exports were up modestly, increasing 0.6% for the year, largely driven by a solid 3.2% gain in services exports (see column “YTD” in Table 1).
• Annual goods exports to the United States fell 5.8%, mitigated almost completely by a 17.2% export gain to non-U.S. markets; overall goods exports declined 0.2% in 2025. The U.S. share of Canadian goods exports fell 4.2 percentage points to 71.7% in 2025 compared to 2024, the lowest share since the early 1980s.

Table 1: Canada’s trade performance – December 2025

Note: “m/m” is the change from the previous month; “YTD” is the year-to-date (January to recent month) cumulative change compared to the same period in the previous year.
Data: Statistics Canada. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Figure 1: Canada’s monthly trade performance

Data: Statistics Canada Tables 12-10-0011-01 and 12-10-0144-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Industry view - exports

Canada’s exports of goods were up 2.6% in December, with gains heavily concentrated in just a couple of product categories. In line with recent trends, exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (semi-finished products, including gold products) were again the fastest growing category in terms of value, jumping 18%. Exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals to the United Kingdom, the U.S. and Australia contributed the most to this monthly spike. Another export category which increased significantly was aircraft and other transportation products (20.5%), driven primarily by aircraft exports. Partially offsetting these gains were contractions in metal ores and non-metallic minerals or raw ores and minerals (-7.2%), forestry products (-4.6%), and energy products (-1.0%).

Services exports increased 0.8% in December, with broad gains across most categories. Commercial services exports rose 1.5%, mostly due to increases in non-financial commercial services. Transportation services exports grew 1.3%, while travel services fell for the second month in a row, dropping 0.6% to $5.8 billion.

Annual exports of goods and services increased 0.6% in 2025, with the fastest growing categories including metal and non-metallic mineral products (16.3%), aircraft & other transportation goods (8.6%), metal ores & non-metallic minerals (8.5%), and transportation services (7.9%). However, these increases were partially offset by sharp declines in basic & industrial chemical, plastic & rubber products (-10.5%), forest products (-9.7%), and energy products (-6.9%). Central to this year’s export performance was a 41.7% spike in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum; excluding this product category, annual exports of goods and services dipped 1.5%.

Figure 2: Exports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Note: Metal & non-metallic mineral products include intermediate or semi-finished products, while metal ores & non-metallic minerals include raw ores and minerals (e.g., iron ore, potash, stone).
Data: Statistics Canada Tables 12-10-0163-01 and 12-10-0144-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada

Industry view - imports

Total goods imports rose 0.6% in December, an increase of $403 million. Though it wasn’t the fastest growing product category, motor vehicles and parts contributed the most to this overall gain in import value, increasing $572 million in December, primarily due to a 12.1% increase in passenger cars and light trucks. These mostly came from countries other than the United States, notably Mexico and the Netherlands. December’s fastest growing goods import categories were metal ores & non-metallic minerals which grew 16.4%, and energy products which increased 8.9%.

Countering these increases, imports of consumer goods, basic & industrial chemicals, plastic & rubber products, and farm, fishing & intermediate food products each reported monthly declines over $200 million.

At the same time, services imports fell 2.2%, with only government services increasing (3.2%). Commercial services and transportation both posted declines, falling 1.8% and 4.9% respectively. Travel services imports also fell as spending by Canadian travellers abroad dipped.

For 2025 as a whole, imports of goods and services rose 2.7% to $1.0 trillion, with the fastest growing categories being metal ores & non-metallic minerals (33.6%), electronics (6.4%) and farm, fishing & intermediate food products (5.6%). Transportation services were the highest growing services category year over year, up 4.5%.

Figure 3: Imports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Note: Metal & non-metallic mineral products include intermediate or semi-finished products, while metal ores & non-metallic minerals include raw ores and minerals (e.g., iron ore, potash, stone).
Data: Statistics Canada Tables 12-10-0163-01 and 12-10-0144-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Global markets

Following 2 consecutive monthly declines, goods exports to the U.S. were up 1.1% in December, and goods imports also increased, rising 3.5%.

The previous month’s 4.9% drop in goods exports to overseas markets (i.e., non-U.S. markets)—driven by lower gold shipments to the United Kingdom—reversed in December as unwrought gold became the primary driver of export growth. Exports to overseas markets rose 5.8%, marking an all-time high. In contrast, overseas imports fell 3.0% in December, a decline spread broadly across countries and products.

On an annual basis, goods exports to the United States were down 5.8% with imports also falling 2.9%. As a result, Canada’s goods trade surplus with the United States totalled $81.6 billion in 2025, a nearly $20 billion decline from the surplus observed in 2024. Moreover, the U.S. share of Canadian goods exports fell from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025—the lowest share since the early 1980s.

On the other hand, annual goods exports to non-U.S. countries rose 17.2% to an all-time high, and imports increased 12.4%. Total goods trade activity (imports plus exports) with overseas markets rose by $69 billion (or 14.3%) year-over-year.

Canada’s overall goods trade deficit increased significantly in 2025, widening from $7.2 billion in 2024 to $31.3 billion in 2025—the largest deficit since 2020.

Figure 4: Goods trade by main markets (monthly % change)

Data: Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0011-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Prices and volumes

The December increase in goods exports was driven by both prices and volumes, up 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. On the other hand, goods import volumes also rose by 1.4% in December, but this was partially offset by a 0.8% decline in import prices.

The Canadian dollar, which had been depreciating since the summer, rebounded sharply in December, gaining 1.3 U.S. cents to reach 72.45 cents. This marked its first increase after 5 consecutive months of decline. Because many trade transactions are conducted in U.S. dollars, December’s appreciation of the Canadian dollar dampened reported trade values in Canadian dollars. When expressed in U.S. dollars, Canadian goods exports were much stronger, increasing 4.5% in December, while goods imports were up 2.4%.

Meanwhile, Western Canada Select—the benchmark for western Canadian crude oil—fell once again in December, down 4.8% to average US$46.45 per barrel, following a slight uptick in the previous month. Over the full year, strong global oil production growth outpaced consumption, resulting in an ongoing oversupply that’s expected to continue in 2026.

For the full year 2025, growth in goods exports was driven primarily by higher prices (largely in gold), which rose 1.6%, while export volumes declined 1.7%. A similar trend was observed in imports, with import prices increasing 2.7% compared to a 0.2% increase in import volumes.

Figure 5: Goods trade (monthly % change in volume and price indices)

Data: Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0168-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Figure 6: Exchange rate & oil prices

Data: Bank of Canada, Government of Alberta.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

What to watch

• Canada’s economy posted weak growth in November and early indications for December point to a no-growth scenario, according to Statistics Canada. This could push Canada into a 4^th quarter contraction in which the economy would grow just 1.3% in 2025 overall – weaker than the most recent Bank of Canada projections of 1.8%.
• Canadian automotive production declined 5.4% in 2025, with tariffs leading to a partial reorganization, according to a new analysis from TD Economics. The authors anticipate further production declines in 2026 as uncertainty around CUSMA weighs on the sector.
• India and the U.S. have reached a framework for an Interim Agreement regarding bilateral trade. The agreement outlines intentions to reduce tariffs on U.S. industrial and agri-food goods, as well as tariffs on Indian textiles and aircraft products. India also signaled plans to buy $500 billion in U.S. energy, metals, tech, and aircraft products over the next five years.
• Full-year 2025 U.S. trade data showed goods and services exports rising 6.2%, while imports increased 4.8%. The annual U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly, as a larger goods deficit almost entirely offset the increase in the services surplus.

Next release: March 12, 2026.

Table 2: Trade by industry sector – December 2025

Note: “m/m %” is the change from the previous month; “YTD %” is the year-to-date (January to recent month) cumulative change compared to the same period in the previous year.
Data: Statistics Canada Tables 12-10-0163-01 and 12-10-0144-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada

Table 3: Goods trade by main markets – December 2025

Notes: The Indo-Pacific region total includes only the 9 markets for which data are available. “m/m %” is the change from the previous month; “YTD %” is the year-to-date (January to recent month) cumulative change compared to the same period in the previous year.
Data: Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0011-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada