Monthly trade report: November 2025

ISSN 2819-408X

Highlights

• In November, the boost from gold exports seen in the prior 2 months reversed. As a result, Canada’s exports of goods and services decreased by 2.5%, while imports edged up 0.1% (see column “m/m” in Table 1).
• When we exclude gold’s product category (i.e. metal and non-metallic mineral products), Canada’s goods and services exports actually expanded 1.4%–with energy, industrial machinery and equipment, aircraft, and other products posting growth.
• Goods exports destined for the U.S. fell again in November (-1.8%) due to lower motor vehicles and gold exports; this brought goods exports to the U.S. down 4.9% over the first 11 months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, goods exports to the rest of the world also contracted in November, reversing the upward trend recorded during the previous 2 months, although overall levels remained high.
• On the imports side, goods fell modestly, as higher consumer goods imports were offset by lower imports of motor vehicles and energy products, while services rose 0.5%, largely supported by higher Canadian travel spending overseas.
• The decline in goods exports was driven by both prices and volumes; removing price impacts, goods export volumes decreased 0.9%. At the same time, goods import volumes increased 0.9%.

Table 1: Canada’s trade performance – November 2025

Figure 1: Canada’s monthly trade performance

Industry view - exports

Overall goods exports fell 2.8% in November, but declines were very concentrated in just 3 product categories, while the other 8 categories expanded. The largest contributor to the decrease was a sharp drop (-24.4%) in exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products, driven mainly by lower shipments of gold to the United Kingdom, the U.S., and Hong Kong (gold is included in this category as an intermediate metal product). Excluding this product category, total goods exports rose by 2.5% in November.

Exports of motor vehicles and parts fell 11.6% in November, reaching their lowest level in 3 years. The decline reflected reduced exports of vehicles – as opposed to parts – amid a semiconductor shortage and the introduction of U.S. import tariffs on medium and heavy trucks on November 1. An 8.5% increase in exports of energy products (mainly crude oil and crude bitumen), the largest increase in terms of value, moderated the monthly decline.

Total services exports fell by 1.5% in November. Commercial services exports fell by 1.7%, primarily because of lower exports of financial services. Reduced exports of transportation and travel services also contributed to the overall decline.

Figure 2: Exports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Industry view - imports

Goods imports edged down 0.1% in November, with broad-based declines in most product categories. Lower imports of motor vehicles and parts led the overall decrease, falling by 4.5%, mainly due to lower imports of passenger cars and light trucks from the U.S., reflecting reduced U.S. production amid shortages of key materials and parts. Imports of energy products declined by 10.6%, largely because of lower shipments of crude oil and crude bitumen from the U.S. and Nigeria. These decreases were partly offset by a 6.2% increase in imports of consumer goods, driven primarily by pharmaceutical and medicinal products, as well as clothing, footwear and accessories.

Services imports edged up 0.5% in November, with increases in 3 of 4 major categories. Imports of travel services rose 3.9%, reflecting higher spending by Canadians abroad outside the U.S. Transportation services imports increased 4.1%, mainly due to higher marine transport services, while imports of commercial services declined 2.0%, the later represents nearly 60% of all services imports.

Figure 3: Imports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Global markets

Canada’s goods exports to the U.S. continued to decline in November, falling 1.8%. In the first 11 months of 2025, goods exports to the U.S. were down 4.9% compared with the same period in 2024. Goods imports from the U.S. fell 5.4% in November, reaching their lowest level since February 2022. As a result, Canada’s goods trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $6.6 billion, up $5.2 billion from October.

After rising 27.7% from August to October, goods exports to overseas (i.e. non-U.S. markets) dropped 4.9% in November, primarily due to lower shipments of gold to the United Kingdom and Hong Kong, and crude oil to the Netherlands. In contrast, goods imports from overseas increased 7.8%, reaching an all-time high. Growth was led by imports from China and Germany (various products) and Belgium (pharmaceutical products).

Figure 4: Goods trade by main markets (monthly % change)

Prices and volumes

In November, Canada’s drop in goods exports was driven by both prices and volumes. Goods export prices fell 1.9% in November, marking their first decrease after 2 months of growth. Meanwhile, goods export volumes fell 0.9%, the first monthly sequential decline in 2025. Notably, gold’s product category (metal and non-metallic mineral products) recorded the steepest declines this month, with export prices falling by 8.4% and export volumes by 17.4%.

The value of Canada’s goods imports fell modestly in November, with falling import prices (-0.9%) outweighing the uptick in import volumes (+0.9%).

The Canadian dollar depreciated to 71.15 U.S. cents, a decrease of 0.4% from October. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, with the last appreciation reported in June. Western Canada Select—the benchmark for western Canadian crude oil—posted a modest increase, averaging US$48.77 per barrel in November. This 0.3% monthly increase occurs as oil prices were shaped by a balance between geopolitical risk premiums and persistent oversupply.

Figure 5: Goods trade (monthly % change in volume and price indices)

Figure 6: Exchange rate & oil prices

What to watch

• The IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% from 3.1% in its latest World Economic Outlook, matching the estimated 3.3% growth for 2025. Growth remains resilient despite ongoing trade tensions, supported by technology-related exports such as semiconductors and continued investment in high-tech infrastructure.
• The Bank of Canada’s Q4 2025 Business Outlook Survey reported subdued business sentiment in Canada due to persistent uncertainty. Canadian exporters have been facing obstacles to U.S. export growth, including softer U.S. demand and trade policy uncertainty. While most have not diversified beyond the U.S., exporters already active in other foreign markets reported increasing their focus there.
• Canada and China agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese EVs and Canadian canola earlier this month. Canola exports to China, nearly $5 billion in 2024, have more than halved in 2025, hurt by the Chinese tariffs introduced in March.
• In a challenging global environment, many countries are diversifying trade to minimize risks.. China's merchandise exports grew to a number of partners in Asia in 2025, while the European Union and India recently reached a landmark trade agreement to eliminate tariffs on most traded goods.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in late-January, citing economic challenges and uncertainty.

Next release: February 19, 2026.

Table 2: Trade by industry sector – November 2025

Table 3: Goods trade by main markets – November 2025