Monthly trade report: October 2025

ISSN 2819-408X

Highlights

• Precious metal prices continued to shape Canadian trade trends in October, with gold playing a particularly significant role.
• Exports of goods and services rose 1.5%, driven primarily by metal and non-metallic mineral products on the strength of higher prices for gold shipments. Excluding exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, total exports were down 2.0%.
• Imports increased 2.3%, led by an unusually large gain in electronic and electrical equipment and parts, alongside higher imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products—mainly silver and platinum.
• Goods exports to countries other than the United States surged 15.6% to a record high, supported by gold exports to the United Kingdom and crude oil shipments to China. Goods imports from non-U.S. destinations edged up 0.6%.
• In volume terms, total goods exports declined 0.4%, while goods imports advanced 2.6%.

Table 1: Canada’s trade performance – October 2025

Figure 1: Canada’s monthly trade performance

Industry view - exports

Despite declines recorded in more than half of the major product categories (6 of 11), goods exports grew in October. In contrast, services exports edged lower overall, though 3 of 4 categories posted gains. Driving growth on the goods side were metal and non-metallic mineral products, which surged 27.3%, supported by higher gold exports to the United Kingdom. Elevated gold prices have been the primary factor behind recent gains, but volumes also advanced sharply, up nearly 40% year-over-year in October. Notably, export growth for metal and non-metallic mineral products in both September and October were abnormally large compared to normal monthly growth of the last 20 years.

Motor vehicles and parts were the second-largest contributor to export growth in value terms, despite posting a smaller percentage increase than chemical, plastic, and rubber products, given the sector’s larger share of total exports. All subcategories within motor vehicles and parts recorded gains. For medium and heavy trucks, buses, and other motor vehicles, the increase coincided with the announcement of new U.S. import tariffs, suggesting possible tariff front-loading. Offsetting these gains were lower exports of energy products (-8.4%), driven by a sharp decline in crude oil and bitumen (-13.5%) on both lower prices and volumes.

Services exports fell 0.4% in October, led by a 1.4% decline in commercial services. This was partially offset by higher exports of travel services (+1.1%) and transportation services (+2.0%).

Figure 2: Exports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Industry view - imports

Goods imports rose 3.4% in October, with broad-based gains across 8 of the 11 major product categories. In contrast, services imports declined 1.2% with decreases in 2 of 4 major categories.

Electronic and electrical equipment and parts led growth in goods imports, advancing 10.2%. Despite a lower percentage increase than metal ores and non-metallic minerals, this category was the largest contributor to growth given its significant share of total imports. The monthly increase was unusually strong compared to previous monthly changes. Higher imports of processing units for computers from Ireland and smartphones from China and the United States supported this growth.

Metal and non-metallic mineral products were the second-largest contributor, up 9.5%. While imports of unwrought gold have driven volatility in this category throughout 2025, October’s increase was primarily due to higher imports of unwrought platinum and silver bullion from the United States, as prices for these metals have tracked recent gains in gold.

Commercial services (-1.7%) and travel services (-1.6%) both declined. The latter reflected lower spending by Canadian travellers abroad, both in the United States and non-United States destinations.

Figure 3: Imports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Global markets

After 3 consecutive monthly declines, goods imports from the United States rebounded in October, rising 5.3% on higher imports of smartphones and precious metals. In contrast, exports to the United States fell 3.4%, partly due to lower shipments of aircraft and unwrought gold.

Trade with China strengthened on both sides, with crude oil driving Canada’s export growth and smartphones supporting imports. With the European Union, weakness in imports was partly attributable to lower pharmaceutical shipments from Belgium.

Goods exports to the rest of the world posted strong gains, led by gold exports to the United Kingdom. Imports from these markets edged up slightly, supported by higher gold imports from Peru, partially offset by lower mineral product imports from Australia.

Figure 4: Goods trade by main markets (monthly % change)

Prices and volumes

Strong growth in goods exports in October was largely driven by a 2.5% rise in export prices, with elevated gold prices as one of the main drivers. In contrast, export volumes edged down 0.4% during the month. On the import side, both prices and volumes strengthened, increasing by 0.7% and 2.6%, respectively.

The Canadian dollar continued its downward trend in October, depreciating 1.1% to average 71.47 U.S. cents. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline, following significant appreciation in the Spring. Meanwhile, Western Canada Select—the benchmark for western Canadian crude oil—fell for a third straight month, averaging US$48.62 per barrel in October amid a global crude oil oversupply. According to the Energy Information Administration, monthly global crude oil production in 2025 has surpassed the levels of the corresponding months in 2024 since March.

Figure 5: Goods trade (monthly % change in volume and price indices)

Figure 6: Exchange rate & oil prices

What to watch

• Oil prices have been relatively stable following events in Venezuela and remain lower than they were last year. Short-term market impacts are likely to be limited given Venezuela’s relatively small share of global production (around 1%) and global oil oversupply.
• The U.S. economy posted strong growth of 4.3% annualized in Q3, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.8%. Consumer spending was the main driver. By contrast, business investment slowed despite the ongoing AI boom. Looking ahead, forecasters expect GDP to slow in Q4.
• US manufacturing activity fell for ninth consecutive month in December, with the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 47.9, down from 48.2 in November. (A PMI below 50 indicates deteriorating business conditions.)
• China launched a Free Trade Port on Hainan Island in December, facilitating entry of overseas goods under expanded zero-tariff coverage. Hainan now represents the world’s second-largest tariff-free zone after Hong Kong.

Next release: January 29, 2026.

Table 2: Trade by industry sector – October 2025

Table 3: Goods trade by main markets – October 2025