Monthly trade report: September 2025

ISSN 2819-408X

Highlights

• Canada’s exports of goods and services increased 5.0% in September (see column “m/m” in Table 1) as exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products, aircraft and other transportation equipment, and commercial and travel services saw increases.
• On the other hand, Canada’s imports of goods and services fell 3.0% in September as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products saw a large decrease, while imports of consumer goods, travel services and transportation services also declined.
• Goods exports to the U.S. grew 4.6% in September due to aircraft, light trucks, and gold, while imports were down 1.7%, leading to the largest surplus with the U.S. since February 2025.
• Exports to other markets jumped 11.0% as more unwrought gold went to Switzerland, more crude oil was sent to Germany, and Singapore received more crude oil and aircraft.
• Canada’s goods export gain was driven by both volumes (4.2%) and prices (2.2%). Meanwhile, goods import volumes fell 3.3%, while import prices fell 0.9%.

Table 1: Canada’s trade performance – September 2025

Note: “m/m” is the change from the previous month; “YTD” is the year-to-date (January to recent month) cumulative change compared to the same period in the previous year.
Data: Statistics Canada. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.

Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Figure 1: Canada’s monthly trade performance

Data: Statistics Canada Tables 12-10-0011-01 and 12-10-0144-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Industry view - exports

Exports of goods jumped 6.3% from August to September, the largest percentage increase since February of 2024. Most product categories experienced increases, with aircraft and other transportation growing the fastest at 23.4%. This was driven by higher shipments of private jets to the U.S.

Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products saw the largest dollar increase of $1.9 billion (22.7%). This was due to an increase of 30.2% or $1.3 billion in exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals and their alloys, going to Switzerland, the U.K. and the U.S., continuing the trend of gold being a strong driver of goods export growth. While this product category has frequent monthly swings, this month’s growth represents an outlier relative to typical monthly fluctuations and is notably high. Excluding this sub-group, total goods exports grew 4.5% in September. Exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium alloys grew 18.6% in September but were still 16.7% lower than September of 2024.

Metal ores and non-metallic minerals posted the largest decrease of $149.3 million (-6.2%), driven mainly by a 13.0% decrease in exports of copper ores and concentrates, coinciding with U.S. section 232 tariffs being imposed on copper imports.

Exports of services edged up 0.7% in September, with half of service categories posting increases. Growth was mainly driven by commercial services (0.9%), and travel services (0.7%) as September saw an increase in spending in Canada by travellers from the U.S. Exports of transportation services saw a slight decrease of 0.2%, while government services exports were unchanged.

Figure 2: Exports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Data: Statistics Canada Tables 12-10-0163-01 and 12-10-0144-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Industry view - imports

Goods imports fell 4.1% from August to September, with more than half of the product categories experiencing decreases. Imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products accounted for almost two-thirds of the decline, falling by $1.8 billion or 27.8%. Lower imports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum groups and their alloys drove this decrease, falling 72.5% in September. This change was considerably larger than typical monthly changes. Notably large imports of gold from Switzerland and South Africa were seen in August but were not repeated in September; the sub-group was up 12.9% for the year to-date. Excluding this sub-group, goods imports were down 1.5% in September.

Another contributor to the overall decrease was imports of consumer goods, which fell 6.0%. While this decrease was broad-based among most sub-categories, imports of pharmaceutical and medicinal products     (-13.8%) from Belgium, the Netherlands, and Denmark contributed the most to the decrease of consumer goods. Partially offsetting the import decrease were energy products imports, which grew 9.7% or $285.2 million. This was driven almost exclusively by increased imports of crude oil and bitumen (+267.6 million, 21.5%).

Imports of services grew 0.8% with commercial services, specifically financial services, exclusively driving the increase, growing 2.4%. The overall increase was partially offset by decreases of 1.9% in travel and 0.8% in transportation imports. Imports of government services were unchanged.

Figure 3: Imports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Data: Statistics Canada Tables 12-10-0163-01 and 12-10-0144-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Global markets

Goods exports to the U.S. grew 4.6% in September after a 3.4% decrease in August. This increase was driven by higher exports of private jets, light trucks and unwrought gold. In contrast, imports from the U.S. declined 1.7% in September, continuing a now 3-month trend of import decreases. This led to Canada experiencing its largest trade surplus with the U.S. since February 2025, widening from $6.0 billion in August to $8.6 billion in September. Despite the September growth, goods exports to the U.S. were down 3.9% during January to September of this year compared to the same period last year, while imports were down 1.6%.

Goods exports to countries other than the U.S. jumped 11.0% in September as higher shipments of unwrought gold went to Switzerland, more crude oil went to Germany, and both crude oil and aircraft went to Singapore.  In fact, Canada more than doubled its goods exports to Singapore in an abnormally high monthly swing.

Meanwhile, imports from countries other than the U.S. fell sharply, by 7.3% in September. This decrease was due to lower imports of unwrought gold from Switzerland, and various products from China. These changes led to Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the U.S. to narrow from a record high of $12.4 billion in August to $8.5 billion in September–the lowest since October 2024.

Figure 4: Goods trade by main markets (monthly % change)

Data: Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0011-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Prices and volumes

In September, goods exports strengthened on both prices and volumes—this is the first time both components increased simultaneously since May. Export volumes of goods rose 4.2%, marking the strongest monthly growth since January. Crude oil exports were a key contributor in September, driven primarily by higher volumes, even as the price of Western Canada Select declined 3.9%. Along with the growth in goods export volumes, goods export prices advanced 2.2%, which was the largest increase since December 2024. Of note, goods export volumes have fluctuated between monthly growth and declines since the beginning of 2025, but on a year-to-date basis, volumes are down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024.

On the import side, both prices and volumes fell for the first time since April. Goods import volumes decreased 3.3%, extending their decline for a third consecutive month.

After appreciating significantly during the Spring, the Canadian dollar levelled off and began to depreciate in the summer. In September, the dollar continued this downward trend, slipping 0.2% to average 72.29 U.S. cents. However, this was still stronger than the beginning of the year when it hit a recent low of 69.49 U.S. cents in January.

Figure 5: Goods trade (monthly % change in volume and price indices)

Data: Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0168-01. Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

Figure 6: Exchange rate & oil prices

Data: Bank of Canada, Government of Alberta.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada.

What to watch

• Citing stronger-than-expected economic activity and decreasing inflation, while also warning of continued uncertainty, the Bank of Canada decided to keep the policy rate at 2.25%. The U.S. Federal Reserve cited moderate economic growth, but slower job gains and higher inflation when deciding to lower its target rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.50%-3.75%
• Canada’s real GDP grew 2.6% (annualized) in Q3, led by growth in net exports and government investment. While sectors directly affected by U.S. Section 232 tariffs mostly rebounded in Q3 (except for primary metal manufacturing), the rebound wasn’t sufficient to counteract declines earlier in the year; year-to-date, tariff-affected sectors were down 3.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
• Canada added 54,000 jobs in November, bringing the unemployment rate down to 6.5%. Health care and social assistance saw the largest increase at 46,000 jobs while wholesale and retail trade saw the largest decrease at 34,000 jobs. The manufacturing sector, which includes many businesses impacted by the U.S. Section 232 tariffs, lost 9,300 jobs but still has 1.0% more jobs than in November of 2024.
• China’s merchandise trade surplus came in at a record high of $1.4 trillion from January to October of 2025, despite facing high tariffs from the U.S. China’s trade balance shifted from the U.S. to other countries–it fell by 18.1% with the U.S. while growing 66.1% with Vietnam, 46.2% with Thailand, and 21.7% with the Philippines, compared to the same period of 2024.

Next release: January 8, 2026

Table 2: Trade by industry sector – September 2025

Table 3: Goods trade by main markets – September 2025