Monthly trade report: 2025 - May

ISSN 2819-408X

July 2025

Table of contents

• Highlights
• Industry view - Exports
• Industry view - Imports
• Global markets
• Prices and volumes
• What to watch

Highlights

• In May, Canada’s exports of goods and services increased by 0.8% (see column “m/m” in Table 1), driven by record-high gold exports to the United Kingdom. Excluding gold’s product category, exports declined by 1.0% in May.
• Imports of goods and services fell by 0.8% month-over-month, led primarily by lower imports of metal and non-metallic products. However, a rise in imports of consumer goods and commercial services partially offset this overall decline.
• May marked the 4th month of consecutive goods export declines to the U.S. and the 3rd consecutive month for declines in goods imports. Canada's monthly share of goods exports to the U.S. dropped to 68.3% in May, down from the 2024 monthly average of 75.9%.
• Meanwhile, goods exports to other countries reached a record high in May and were up 5.7%.
• In terms of volumes, goods exports increased by 0.7%, while imports decreased by 0.6%.

Table 1: Canada’s trade performance – May 2025

Figure 1: Canada’s monthly trade performance

Industry view – Exports

Total goods exports rose by 1.1% in May, the first increase in 4 months, following a significant decline in April (-11.0%). The increase can largely be attributed to a rise in exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (15.1%), mainly due to unwrought gold, which reached a record $5.9 billion. Exports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts and industrial machinery, equipment and parts increased by 5.6% and 2.9% respectively. Consumer goods also saw a significant increase in May (2.6%), led by exports of meat products. However, this category remains 18.5% below the peak observed in January. The overall increase was partially offset by a 5.6% drop in energy product exports, with declines across all subcategories—most notably a 4.0% decrease in crude oil exports with falls in both volumes and prices.

Total services exports declined by 0.2% to $17.9 billion, driven by a decrease in commercial services exports (-0.5%), particularly in financial services. Travel services exports continued their downward trend since January 2025, falling by 0.4%. In contrast, exports of transportation services increased in May by 1.7%, partially offsetting this overall decline.

Figure 2: Exports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Industry view - Imports

Total goods imports declined for a third consecutive month, down 1.6% in May. The biggest decline was in imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (-16.8%), following a record high in April 2025. The primary force behind the drop was a substantial decrease in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals (-43.2%). Metal ores and non-metallic minerals decreased by 7.6% following a record high in April 2025. For the second consecutive month, imports of motor vehicles and parts declined, falling by 5.3% in May. The sharpest drop was seen in passenger cars and light trucks, which plunged 9.7%, reaching their lowest level in over 2 years. Partially offsetting the overall decline, imports of consumer goods increased (4.3%), mainly due to a rise in imports of video game consoles, as well as pharmaceutical products from Ireland and the U.S..

Total services imports were up by 1.8% in May, led by an increase in commercial services (4.2%), mainly in imports of financial services. Imports of travel services dropped by 2.7% to $4.5 billion in May, as Canadian residents continued to reduce their travel expenditures in the U.S. for the third month in a row.

Figure 3: Imports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Global markets

Canada’s 2-way trade with the U.S. continued its decline in May. Canada’s goods exports to the U.S. fell for a fourth month in a row, by 0.9% in May. Consequently, Canada's share of goods exports to the U.S. dropped to 68.3%, down from a 2024 monthly average of 75.9%, marking one of the lowest shares ever recorded. Goods imports from the U.S. also fell by 1.2% in May, the third consecutive monthly decline. Canada’s goods trade surplus with the U.S. widened slightly in May, from $3.1 billion in April to $3.2 billion.

Goods exports to countries other than the U.S. reached a record high in May, rising by 5.7%, driven by increased exports of gold to the United Kingdom, crude oil to Singapore and unwrought aluminium and pharmaceutical products to Italy. However, a decline in exports of canola and crude oil to China partially offset the overall increase. Goods imports from countries other than the U.S. fell by 2.0% in May, narrowing Canada’s goods trade deficit with these countries to $9.1 billion.

Figure 4: Goods trade by main markets (monthly % change)

Prices and volumes

The rise in Canadian goods exports in May was primarily driven by a 0.7% increase in export volumes. Export prices also edged up by 0.4%, supported in part by a meagre 1.5% rebound in the price of Western Canada Select—the benchmark for Western Canadian crude oil—which inched up to US$51.57 per barrel. Global oil prices have fallen significantly since the beginning of the year, so May’s price stability was welcomed.

On the import side, both prices and volumes declined for a third consecutive month, falling by 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively.

The Canadian dollar strengthened for a second straight month in May, appreciating by 0.9% against the U.S. dollar to average 72.15 U.S. cents, after remaining below 70 U.S. cents during the first quarter of 2025.

Figure 5: Goods trade (monthly % change in volume and price indices)

Figure 6: Exchange rate & oil prices

What to watch

• The LNG Canada facility began its first production for exports in Kitimat, B.C. on June 22. Export growth is expected to accelerate in late 2025 as the facility targets 14 million metric tonnes annually. It plans to double capacity next year, with most shipments bound for Asia.
• U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran fueled uncertainty in global oil and shipping markets in mid-June. While prices have returned to pre-escalation levels, any further escalation in the region could disrupt oil markets and shipping costs.
• Eurozone industrial production contracted by 2.4% in April 2025—the largest monthly drop in nearly 2 years—the drop was mainly driven by Ireland but also extended to other economies such as the Netherlands.

Next release: August 5, 2025

Table 2: Trade by industry sector – May 2025

Table 3: Goods trade by main markets – May 2025