Monthly trade report: 2025 - April

ISSN 2819-408X

June 2025

Table of contents

• Highlights
• Industry view - Exports
• Industry view - Imports
• Global markets
• Prices and volumes
• What to watch

Highlights

• In April, Canada’s exports of goods and services declined 8.6% (see column “m/m” in Table 1), led by declines in exports of motor vehicles and parts, consumer products, energy products, and industrial machinery, equipment and parts.
• Imports of goods and services decreased 3.0% month-over-month, driven by a significant decline in motor vehicles and parts imports, partially offset by an increase in metal and non-metallic mineral products.
• Canada’s goods exports to and imports from the United States fell 15.7% and 10.8%, respectively, amid new U.S. tariffs imposed in April. In contrast, goods trade with non-U.S. countries reached a record high, with exports up 2.9% and imports rising 8.3% in April.
• Despite the significant decline in April, Canadian goods exports remain 5.8% higher year-to-date (January to April) compared to the same period in 2024. Similarly, goods imports are up 8.7% year-over-year.

Table 1: Canada’s trade performance – April 2025

Figure 1: Canada’s monthly trade performance

Industry view - Exports

Export decreases were observed in 10 of the 11 product categories for goods, but only in 1 of the 4 service sectors. Total goods exports fell by 10.8% in April to $60.4 billion, the lowest level recorded since June 2023. This marked the third straight monthly decline and the steepest in five years. Exports of motor vehicles and parts (-17.4%) representing the largest decline in value in April, almost entirely due to lower exports of passenger cars and light trucks, coinciding with new U.S. tariffs in April on foreign-made motor vehicle.

In April, exports of industrial machinery and equipment, as well as forestry products, declined by 22.5% and 18.5% respectively. Exports of consumer goods declined by 15.4%, mainly due to reduced exports of bread, chocolate, and frozen foods. Energy products fell by 7.9% in April, marking a third consecutive monthly decline, primarily driven by lower crude oil prices. In contrast, exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals were the only category to increase in April (+8.2%).

Exports of services decreased by 0.5% to $17.9 billion, driven by a 3.7% decline in travel service exports as U.S. and overseas travelers reduced their spending in Canada. Gains in both transportation and commercial services exports—led by financial services—helped offset the overall decline.

Figure 2: Exports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Industry view - Imports

Import decreases were observed in 8 of the 11 product categories for goods, and 3 of the 4 service sectors. Total goods imports declined by 3.5% in April, driven by a 17.7% drop in motor vehicles and parts imports, following a record high in March. Canada’s response to the U.S. tariffs may have contributed to this drop in imports. Important declines were also observed in industrial machinery, equipment and parts (-9.5%), consumer goods (-4.2%) and electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-5.5%).

The overall decline in imports was partially offset by a 48.8% surge in metal and non-metallic mineral products, driven by an increase in imports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals to a record $2.7 billion in April, mainly from countries other than the U.S.

Service imports decreased by 1.1% to $18.3 billion as imports of travel services fell 4.1%, due to lower spending by Canadian residents travelling to the United States, as was the case in March.

Statistics Canada continues to caution that import data may be subject to significant revisions until the challenges of the new data collection approach have been fully addressed.

Figure 3: Imports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Global markets

Canada’s exports to the United States fell 15.7% in April, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. With imports from the United States also down 10.8%, Canada’s goods trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $3.6 billion, the smallest surplus since December 2020. After reaching a record high in January 2025, Canada’s exports to the United States have since declined by 26.2%. This downward trend in exports to the U.S. is not unique to Canada. U.S. goods imports overall fell by 20% in April 2025 according to the Census Bureau, marking the largest one-month drop on record. The sharp monthly decline was largely attributed to frontloading of shipments in the previous month.

Exports to countries other than the United States rose by 2.9% in April. The largest export increases were to China (various goods), the United Kingdom (unwrought gold), Algeria (iron ore and wheat), and Brazil (potash). Imports from countries other than the United States also grew 8.3% in April, reaching a record $29.0 billion. As a result, Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the United States widened from $9.0 billion in March to $10.7 billion in April.

Figure 4: Goods trade by main markets (monthly % change)

Prices and volumes

Canadian goods exports declined in April, primarily due to a 9.1% decrease in export volumes. Export prices also fell, by 1.9%, with the price of Western Canada Select (WCS)—the benchmark for Western Canadian crude oil—dropping 6.5% to US$50.83 per barrel.

On the import side, prices and volumes declined for a second consecutive month, decreasing by 0.5% and 2.9%, respectively.

Additionally, the Canadian dollar appreciated in April, strengthening by 2.7% against the U.S. dollar to an average of 71.49 U.S. cents, after trading below 70 U.S. cents during the first three months of 2025. Because a large proportion of trade transactions are conducted in U.S. dollars and must be converted to Canadian dollars for monthly trade statistics, an appreciation of the Canadian dollar—all else is equal—typically results in lower monthly trade values in Canadian dollar terms.

Figure 5: Goods trade (monthly % change in volume and price indices)

Figure 6: Exchange rate & oil prices

What to watch

• Leading indicators point to continuing volatility in trade flows. U.S. shipping agents like Flexport reported a 60% drop in ocean bookings from China to the U.S. in April, while the Port of Los Angeles expects a 35% decline in trans-Pacific container traffic starting in June 2025.
• The OECD in its recently published economic outlook downgraded its global GDP growth to 2.9% in 2025 (compare to 3.1% in its March forecast) in large part due to U.S. tariffs and an expectation that the U.S. economy will experience higher inflation and lower growth than previously forecasted at 1.6% in 2025, a downgrade of 0.6 p.p.
• Canada’s real GDP for Q1 beat the estimates and grew by 2.2% (annualized), largely supported by front-loading of exports in response to U.S. tariff threats and the accumulation of inventories. However, growth prospects are softer going forward as general uncertainty and trade uncertainty due to tariffs weigh on the economy, and weaker demand takes hold.
• Canadians continue shifting away from U.S. travel, with sharp year-over-year declines in return trips from the U.S. in April by air (-19.9%) and by automobile (-35.2%), while return trips from overseas countries increased (+9.9% by air).

Next release: July 3, 2025

Table 2: Trade by industry sector – April 2025

Table 3: Goods trade by main markets – April 2025