Monthly trade report: 2025 - March

ISSN 2819-408X

May 2025

Table of contents

• Highlights
• Industry view - Exports
• Industry view - Imports
• Global markets
• Prices and volumes
• What to watch

Highlights

• Overall exports saw a very small change of -0.1%, but this was accompanied by large shifts in trading patterns. Exports to the United States fell 6.6% in March while exports to other markets grew significantly at 24.8%.
• Canada’s export decrease was driven by aircraft and other transportation products, consumer goods and commercial services. Meanwhile, exports of motor vehicles and parts saw strong growth.
• Imports of goods and services decreased 1.3% month-over-month as significant decreases were seen in imports of energy products, metals and non-metallic mineral products, and travel and transportation services.
• Canada’s exports and imports to the United States fell 6.6% and 2.9% respectively, as the United States implemented some tariffs and Canada responded. Meanwhile, two-way trade with markets outside the United States grew, with exports jumping 24.8% and imports increasing 1.0% in March. (Please note that the export surge may be largely concentrated in gold.)
• The decline in the value of Canadian goods exports in March was primarily driven by lower export prices, which fell by 2.0% while volumes grew 1.8%. On the import side, both prices and volumes declined, down 1.4% and 0.1% respectively.

Table 1: Canada’s trade performance – March 2025

Figure 1: Canada’s monthly trade performance

Industry view - Exports

Export decreases were observed in 6 of the 11 goods product categories but in only 1 of the 4 service sectors in March as some U.S. tariffs took effect. Total goods exports decreased 0.2% in March but remained 10.2% higher than in March of 2024. Aircraft & other transportation exports posted the largest percentage decrease in March, of 10.2%, with all product subsectors decreasing except for exports of aircraft engines, aircraft parts, and other equipment, which posted a 3.9%.

Consumer goods saw the largest decrease in exports by value, dropping $359.3M (-4.2%) in March but remained 14.2% above levels seen a year earlier. After increasing 9.7% in February, exports of meat products decreased 10.8% in March, mainly due to lower exports of pork to Asia which coincides with Chinese tariffs on Canadian pork. Energy exports decreased 2.2% due mainly to nuclear fuel and natural gas.

Somewhat offsetting the overall decline, exports of motor vehicles and parts grew 7.7% almost exclusively due to exports of passenger cars and light trucks (+11.8%). Exports of this subsector have grown 22.5% from November 2024 to March 2025, coinciding with the threat and implementation of United States tariffs affecting Canada’s automotive products and other goods.

Exports of services increased by a modest 0.3% to $17.7 billion as transportation service exports grew 3.6%. Commercial service exports edged down 0.2% to $10.2 billion.

Figure 2: Exports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Industry view - Imports

Import decreases were observed in 4 of the 11 goods product categories and 3 of the 4 service categories. Total goods imports decreased 1.5% in March after 5 months of consecutive increases. Energy imports posted the largest percentage decrease of 18.8% as imports of crude oil and bitumen fell 39.3% and nuclear fuel and other energy products fell 52.6%.

Imports of metals and non-metallic mineral products decreased 15.8% in March as imports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum metals fell 69.7%. Imports of basic and semi-finished iron and steel products decreased 4.8% while imports of basic and semi-finished aluminium and aluminium alloys increased 14.9%.

Partially offsetting the decrease, imports of aircraft and other transportation products grew 3.7%, driven mainly by imports of aircraft, which increased $171.7M or 73.1%.

Service imports decreased by 0.9% as imports of transportation services fell 5.3% and travel services declined 2.9%, due to lower spending by Canadian residents travelling to the United States. Imports of commercial services increased 1.5% in March led by financial services.

Statistics Canada continues to caution that import data may be subject to significant revisions during the new data collection approach.

Figure 3: Imports by industry and sector (monthly % change)

Global markets

The United States introduced broad tariffs on Canadian goods in early March, with subsequent exemptions and pauses reducing the impacts for most sectors. As such, Canada’s exports to the United States fell 6.6% in March, following a similar decrease in February coming down from a record high in January. Despite the declines, exports to the United States were still 2.5% higher in March 2025 than in November 2024. With imports from the United States also falling 2.9%, Canada’s goods trade surplus with the United States narrowed from $10.8 billion in February to $8.4 billion.

Although U.S tariffs on steel and aluminium only came into effect on March 12, Canada’s exports of basic iron and steel products still fell 9.0% for the month, while exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminum alloys grew 4.4%. Canada subsequently introduced responsive tariffs on March 13, and imports of steel were down while aluminum was up.

As trade with the United States weakened, trade with other countries strengthened. Exports to countries than the United States jumped 24.8% in March representing the second-largest percentage increase on record. Exports of unwrought gold to the United Kingdom, crude oil to the Netherlands and Hong Kong, and various products to Germany drove this surge. Imports from countries other than the United States also grew 1.0% in March, leading to Canada’s goods trade deficit with countries other than the United States narrowing from $12.2 billion in February to $9.0 billion in March.

Figure 4: Goods trade by main markets (monthly % change)

Prices and volumes

The decline in the value of Canadian goods exports in March was primarily driven by lower export prices, which fell by 2.0%—marking the first monthly decrease in 6 months. A key contributor was the 7.9% drop in the price of Western Canada Select (WCS), the benchmark price for Western Canadian crude oil, which fell to US$54.38 per barrel. Despite the price decline, goods export volumes rebounded by 1.8% in March, partially offsetting a sharp 5.6% decline recorded in February.

On the import side, both prices and volumes declined, down 1.4% and 0.1% respectively. This marked the first decrease in import prices in 6 months and the first decline in volumes in 8 months.

The Canadian dollar depreciated by 0.4% against the U.S. dollar in March, averaging 69.64 U.S. cents. Although slightly above the January 2025 level of 69.49 U.S. cents, the loonie continued to trade near lows not seen since the early 2000s.

Figure 5: Goods trade (monthly % change in volume and price indices)

Figure 6: Exchange rate & oil prices

What to watch

• United States’ real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter according to advance estimates. This was primarily due to an increase in imports as firms accumulated inventory before the imposition of tariffs. The stockpiling of Canadian goods by American firms appears to have occurred earlier in the year, while U.S. imports from other countries surged in March.
• An advance estimate suggests Canadian real GDP grew by 0.1% in March and 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025. Motor vehicle parts manufacturing grew in tandem with higher exports of motor vehicles and parts in the first quarter (+13.2%) as firms are likely trying to frontload shipments to the United States in advance of announced auto tariffs.
• On May 3, OPEC+ announced an output increase of 411,000 barrels per day from May to June, up from an earlier plan of 135,000 barrels per day. This has led to a lower oil price globally as more supply will enter the market. This comes at a time when prices were already weak due to recession fears.

Next release: June 5, 2025

Table 2: Trade by industry sector – March 2025

Table 3: Goods trade by main markets – March 2025